Comments on: With Oil Prices Poised to Jump as Much as 70%, Every Investor Needs an Energy Strategy http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/ Pure Energy Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:29:07 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Adam http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55759 Adam Thu, 28 May 2009 19:29:25 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55759 A lot of people are trying to profit from the next energy crisis by solid investing, appropriate levels of risk, and forward planning. But consider the last three crises our nation has faced: Subprime mortgage crisis. Government provided billions to investment banks to cover their failures. Foreclosure crisis. Government provided billions to individual speculators and Fannie and Freddie to cover their failures. Automaker crisis. Government provided billions to manufacturers and the UAW to cover their failures. Based on this trend the correct energy strategy is "risk everything for immediate returns". If you win, you win billions. If you lose, you still win billions. A lot of people are trying to profit from the next energy crisis by solid investing, appropriate levels of risk, and forward planning. But consider the last three crises our nation has faced:

Subprime mortgage crisis. Government provided billions to investment banks to cover their failures.

Foreclosure crisis. Government provided billions to individual speculators and Fannie and Freddie to cover their failures.

Automaker crisis. Government provided billions to manufacturers and the UAW to cover their failures.

Based on this trend the correct energy strategy is “risk everything for immediate returns”. If you win, you win billions. If you lose, you still win billions.

]]> By: Kit P http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55737 Kit P Mon, 25 May 2009 00:19:09 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55737 E-P wrote,<br />“despite a 20% increase in producing wells.”<br /><br />I would say this is an effective way to reduce importing oil.<br /><br />“Cumulative North Slope oil peaked in 1998 at 2 million barrels per day (320,000 m³/d)” <br /><br />E-P wrote,<br />“It's time to economize and electrify.”<br /><br />RR has asked me to be gentle. While I am all for not this is theory, it does not seem to be very practical and thus very effective way to reduce oil demand. It would appear that while the thermal efficiency of POVs have improved, people are choosing to to drive bigger cars more miles. At least while they still have jobs. <br /><br />How many barrels per day have EV reduced oil demand? Zero is just an approximate number. Zero is what I would call a very ineffective solution. E-P wrote,
“despite a 20% increase in producing wells.”

I would say this is an effective way to reduce importing oil.

“Cumulative North Slope oil peaked in 1998 at 2 million barrels per day (320,000 m³/d)”

E-P wrote,
“It’s time to economize and electrify.”

RR has asked me to be gentle. While I am all for not this is theory, it does not seem to be very practical and thus very effective way to reduce oil demand. It would appear that while the thermal efficiency of POVs have improved, people are choosing to to drive bigger cars more miles. At least while they still have jobs.

How many barrels per day have EV reduced oil demand? Zero is just an approximate number. Zero is what I would call a very ineffective solution.

]]> By: Anonymous http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55733 Anonymous Sun, 24 May 2009 12:05:45 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55733 in addition to an ENERGY strategy, an investor needs a COMMODITY strategy. what would oil/NG be without hardened, anti corrosive steel[molybdenum, vanadium, iron ore]. what would wind turbines, EVs, or solar be without rare earths. the same commodity interactions go on infinitem. energy commodities don't exist without multiple other common and unique commodities. these same commodities can't exist without adequate energy sources. the total situation is one of commodity interaction. which commodities are crucial to the end EROIE?<br /><br />NOTHING IS AS SIMPLE AS IT FIRST APPEARS.<br /><br />fran in addition to an ENERGY strategy, an investor needs a COMMODITY strategy. what would oil/NG be without hardened, anti corrosive steel[molybdenum, vanadium, iron ore]. what would wind turbines, EVs, or solar be without rare earths. the same commodity interactions go on infinitem. energy commodities don’t exist without multiple other common and unique commodities. these same commodities can’t exist without adequate energy sources. the total situation is one of commodity interaction. which commodities are crucial to the end EROIE?

NOTHING IS AS SIMPLE AS IT FIRST APPEARS.

fran

]]> By: Engineer-Poet http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55722 Engineer-Poet Sun, 24 May 2009 04:37:53 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55722 Given how often <a HREF="http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2009/05/thoughts-on-new-fuel-efficiency.html#6245934758830392499" REL="nofollow">Twit P. is flat wrong</a>, you might be tempted to think he's trying to discredit the views he pushes.<br /><br />Might be. Given how often Twit P. is flat wrong, you might be tempted to think he’s trying to discredit the views he pushes.

Might be.

]]> By: Anonymous http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55720 Anonymous Sun, 24 May 2009 03:22:37 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55720 RR,<br /><br />Thanks for posting another money man's trilogy of the next run up in oil prices and (IF) you have some extra cash, invest it wisely to then profit from the reverse pricing curves WHEN they next WILL happen.<br /><br />I appreciate the time you spend either posting your own thoughts and dissecting some energy issues OR even posting another man's guest post like the one being debated herein.<br /><br />Why people like Kit have to try and make mincemeat out of everything you say or do is beyond me. Go away Kit - and please take your bitching somewhere else!<br /><br />The material being discussed herein is made possible by RR providing his own free time to prepare and post it. Lots of people are learning something and participating in the ensuing discussions. And I for one appreciate it!<br /><br />Cliff RR,

Thanks for posting another money man’s trilogy of the next run up in oil prices and (IF) you have some extra cash, invest it wisely to then profit from the reverse pricing curves WHEN they next WILL happen.

I appreciate the time you spend either posting your own thoughts and dissecting some energy issues OR even posting another man’s guest post like the one being debated herein.

Why people like Kit have to try and make mincemeat out of everything you say or do is beyond me. Go away Kit – and please take your bitching somewhere else!

The material being discussed herein is made possible by RR providing his own free time to prepare and post it. Lots of people are learning something and participating in the ensuing discussions. And I for one appreciate it!

Cliff

]]> By: Robert Rapier http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55702 Robert Rapier Sat, 23 May 2009 17:26:19 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55702 <i>Since Hawaii uses lots of oil to make electricity, if RR was working small nuke plants then I might conclude that would be highly carbon negative.</i>Hawaii has lots of options. They are sitting on top of some unique natural resources. Some are more cost effective than others. All will be communicated in good time.<br /><br /><i>I have notices that your response to anyone you think is proper homage to the great RR is a personal attack. At first I thought it was just me but I think RR has a think skin.</i>Spell check is your friend. But you appear to operate under some serious misconceptions. No one need pay homage to me. On the other hand, personal attacks are not tolerated, and what you said - commenting (incorrectly) on my family and our energy usage - is getting pretty close to what is considered unacceptable. When you talk about me paying any amount to "maintain his children's lifestyle" that amounts to a smear, and one that is 1). Unwarranted; 2). Incorrect. <br /><br />If you haven't noticed, you still haven't been banned, and unless it has completely slipped my mind I don't recall you ever paying any homage. But there is a lot of area between "homage" and "personal attacks." Try to spend more time in that area, and your time will be a lot better spent.<br /><br />RR Since Hawaii uses lots of oil to make electricity, if RR was working small nuke plants then I might conclude that would be highly carbon negative.Hawaii has lots of options. They are sitting on top of some unique natural resources. Some are more cost effective than others. All will be communicated in good time.

I have notices that your response to anyone you think is proper homage to the great RR is a personal attack. At first I thought it was just me but I think RR has a think skin.Spell check is your friend. But you appear to operate under some serious misconceptions. No one need pay homage to me. On the other hand, personal attacks are not tolerated, and what you said – commenting (incorrectly) on my family and our energy usage – is getting pretty close to what is considered unacceptable. When you talk about me paying any amount to “maintain his children’s lifestyle” that amounts to a smear, and one that is 1). Unwarranted; 2). Incorrect.

If you haven’t noticed, you still haven’t been banned, and unless it has completely slipped my mind I don’t recall you ever paying any homage. But there is a lot of area between “homage” and “personal attacks.” Try to spend more time in that area, and your time will be a lot better spent.

RR

]]> By: Anonymous http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55700 Anonymous Sat, 23 May 2009 17:24:26 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55700 the basic premise--"...every investor needs an energy stategy..." is correct. whether one believes in OIL,or NG, or WIND/SOLAR, or PIXIEDUST the premise holds. for certain, the 4 billion "have nots" or "have less than we" will not go away[reduce their desire/use for growing their economies which requires mammoth energy needs]. their gov'ts will illustrate the ways believed by them to best meet this need. in the case of today's giants[ CHINA, INDIA] the priorities are obvious. OIL is at/near the top[whether one accepts Fitzgerald's statements or not is moot].<br /><br />one's strategy should not wander afield of the two six hundred pound gorillas leading the charge, regardless of any other views held.<br /><br />fran the basic premise–”…every investor needs an energy stategy…” is correct. whether one believes in OIL,or NG, or WIND/SOLAR, or PIXIEDUST the premise holds. for certain, the 4 billion “have nots” or “have less than we” will not go away[reduce their desire/use for growing their economies which requires mammoth energy needs]. their gov’ts will illustrate the ways believed by them to best meet this need. in the case of today’s giants[ CHINA, INDIA] the priorities are obvious. OIL is at/near the top[whether one accepts Fitzgerald's statements or not is moot].

one’s strategy should not wander afield of the two six hundred pound gorillas leading the charge, regardless of any other views held.

fran

]]> By: Anonymous http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55701 Anonymous Sat, 23 May 2009 17:24:26 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55701 the basic premise--"...every investor needs an energy stategy..." is correct. whether one believes in OIL,or NG, or WIND/SOLAR, or PIXIEDUST the premise holds. for certain, the 4 billion "have nots" or "have less than we" will not go away[reduce their desire/use for growing their economies which requires mammoth energy needs]. their gov'ts will illustrate the ways believed by them to best meet this need. in the case of today's giants[ CHINA, INDIA] the priorities are obvious. OIL is at/near the top[whether one accepts Fitzgerald's statements or not is moot].<br /><br />one's strategy should not wander afield of the two six hundred pound gorillas leading the charge, regardless of any other views held.<br /><br />fran the basic premise–”…every investor needs an energy stategy…” is correct. whether one believes in OIL,or NG, or WIND/SOLAR, or PIXIEDUST the premise holds. for certain, the 4 billion “have nots” or “have less than we” will not go away[reduce their desire/use for growing their economies which requires mammoth energy needs]. their gov’ts will illustrate the ways believed by them to best meet this need. in the case of today’s giants[ CHINA, INDIA] the priorities are obvious. OIL is at/near the top[whether one accepts Fitzgerald's statements or not is moot].

one’s strategy should not wander afield of the two six hundred pound gorillas leading the charge, regardless of any other views held.

fran

]]> By: Kit P http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55699 Kit P Sat, 23 May 2009 16:38:12 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55699 “it wasn't a vacation, it was a business trip.”<br /><br />Excuse be for jumping to a concussion based on what you wrote.<br /><br />“the result of that trip will be highly carbon negative.”<br /><br />Since Hawaii uses lots of oil to make electricity, if RR was working small nuke plants then I might conclude that would be highly carbon negative. <br /><br />“Maybe some day you will stop jumping to conclusions.”<br /><br />It is not likely will I 'stop jumping to conclusions' when I hear things like 'highly carbon negative'. <br /><br />Since this tread is about energy investment strategy, my gut reaction to hearing 'highly carbon negative' is to put one hand where I keep my wallet and the other in the pocket with I keep my check book. This is a typical Midwestern reaction to con jobs from Texans and Eurotrash. <br /><br />“Until then, I guess we will all have to continue to spend time addressing misinformation.”<br /><br />Actually that is you choice RR. I have notices that your response to anyone you think is proper homage to the great RR is a personal attack. At first I thought it was just me but I think RR has a think skin.<br /><br />So, RR would you like to waste some time on our vulnerability to con artists because we derive such a benefit from energy produced by others? “it wasn’t a vacation, it was a business trip.”

Excuse be for jumping to a concussion based on what you wrote.

“the result of that trip will be highly carbon negative.”

Since Hawaii uses lots of oil to make electricity, if RR was working small nuke plants then I might conclude that would be highly carbon negative.

“Maybe some day you will stop jumping to conclusions.”

It is not likely will I ’stop jumping to conclusions’ when I hear things like ‘highly carbon negative’.

Since this tread is about energy investment strategy, my gut reaction to hearing ‘highly carbon negative’ is to put one hand where I keep my wallet and the other in the pocket with I keep my check book. This is a typical Midwestern reaction to con jobs from Texans and Eurotrash.

“Until then, I guess we will all have to continue to spend time addressing misinformation.”

Actually that is you choice RR. I have notices that your response to anyone you think is proper homage to the great RR is a personal attack. At first I thought it was just me but I think RR has a think skin.

So, RR would you like to waste some time on our vulnerability to con artists because we derive such a benefit from energy produced by others?

]]> By: PeteS http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55696 PeteS Sat, 23 May 2009 16:02:33 +0000 http://robertrapier.wordpress.com/2009/05/22/with-oil-prices-poised-to-jump-as-much-as-70-every-investor-needs-an-energy-strategy/#comment-55696 Robert, re: ads, point taken. Although I have to say that Mr. "Greedy Hackers Set My Computer On Fire Trying To Steal My Fractals" Fitz-Gerald's "ad" looks more like a malicious fabrication, a con job in other words.<br /><br />And his story about oil is strangely missing any information about the current glut in storage, or any hint that prices might slump again severely before they rise in the longer term. Or that extreme volatility could turn investing in energy into a giant Ponzi scheme. Maybe it's just me, but I'm inclined to treat anything he says with a lot of suspicion. <br /><br />(Especially when I read about his magic formula which runs to 7 pages of 8-point type, or 2,787 characters. Hello? That's less than 7 characters per line! I actually thought the whole ad was a joke when I started reading it. I've seen more convincing Nigerian 419 scams!)<br /><br />:-) Robert, re: ads, point taken. Although I have to say that Mr. “Greedy Hackers Set My Computer On Fire Trying To Steal My Fractals” Fitz-Gerald’s “ad” looks more like a malicious fabrication, a con job in other words.

And his story about oil is strangely missing any information about the current glut in storage, or any hint that prices might slump again severely before they rise in the longer term. Or that extreme volatility could turn investing in energy into a giant Ponzi scheme. Maybe it’s just me, but I’m inclined to treat anything he says with a lot of suspicion.

(Especially when I read about his magic formula which runs to 7 pages of 8-point type, or 2,787 characters. Hello? That’s less than 7 characters per line! I actually thought the whole ad was a joke when I started reading it. I’ve seen more convincing Nigerian 419 scams!)

:-)

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