How Corn Ethanol Destroys Rain Forests

At least according to a new story in Time, which is a blistering critique of our ethanol policies. It also documents the change of heart that has taken place among some prominent ethanol boosters.

The Clean Energy Scam

In Brazil, for instance, only a tiny portion of the Amazon is being torn down to grow the sugarcane that fuels most Brazilian cars. More deforestation results from a chain reaction so vast it’s subtle: U.S. farmers are selling one-fifth of their corn to ethanol production, so U.S. soybean farmers are switching to corn, so Brazilian soybean farmers are expanding into cattle pastures, so Brazilian cattlemen are displaced to the Amazon. It’s the remorseless economics of commodities markets.

It is a sobering article, and well worth a read. It does contain some errors. First, the author repeats (and actually embellishes) the claim that ethanol “provide(s) 45% of Brazil’s fuel.” As I have shown previously, from actual energy usage statistics, it is about 17% of transportation fuel on a volumetric basis, and 10% on an energy equivalent basis. Second, on carbon emissions, the author mentions that the “gains approached 90% for more efficient fuels.” Important to note that while these 80 or 90% carbon emission reductions for next generation ethanol are liberally thrown around, they are all based on models. Nobody has actually demonstrated this. To demonstrate it requires a cellulosic ethanol plant that is highly integrated. The waste biomass must be used to provide power for the plant. There are a number of problems to be worked through - if not we would already have a cellulosic ethanol industry - but these numbers continue to be repeated as if they were demonstrated.

One other paragraph that I want to mention:

There isn’t much sugar in the Amazon. But my next stop was the Cerrado, south of the Amazon, an ecological jewel in its own right. The Amazon gets the ink, but the Cerrado is the world’s most biodiverse savanna, with 10,000 species of plants, nearly half of which are found nowhere else on earth, and more mammals than the African bush.

I haven’t seen a lot of mainstream coverage of the situation in the Cerrado, but I did write about it in the renewable diesel chapter that I recently contributed to a book that is still pending publication. When proponents say that sugarcane isn’t grown in the Amazon, they are right. But the story is much more complex than that.

Future Reserves

Just going through some files on my hard drive, and I ran across the following story. Unfortunately, I don’t have the source. But it’s an interesting look at where projected future oil reserves are expected to come from. It also reinforces the difficulty that the international oil companies are going to have replacing their reserves - as most of the remaining reserves are in the hands of national oil companies.

Who Will Supply the World?

Africa

The continent has about 10 per cent of proven global oil reserves and 8 per cent of the world’s gas. The biggest oil producers are Nigeria, Algeria, Libya and Angola, which account for roughly three- quarters of Africa’s oil production. West Africa has become a focus for exploration and has attracted huge investment, such as BP’s dollars 900m deal with Tripoli. The US is expected to buy about 25 per cent of its oil from the area within the next 10 years, up from 15 per cent, which accounts partly for an increase in US military cooperation with African states. China is also securing exploration and drilling licences.

Saudi Arabia

The kingdom accounts for 19 per cent of world oil exports. Many analysts expect it to supply a quarter of the world’s added production over the next few years. And as the only producer with significant excess capacity, it has played a crucial role in alleviating temporary supply disruptions. The Saudis won’t say how much oil they are extracting from individual wells, or what reserves remain in individual oil fields. But the total amount that the kingdom produces has been declining, down a million barrels a day over the last two years. Giant oil reserves were discovered six years ago in the vast desert known as the Empty Quarter. According to estimates, the new fields could produce up to 2.2 million barrels a day for another 50 years.

Iran

Less than 10 per cent of its territory has so far been prospected for oil. Given adequate investment and technological modernisation, Iran could more than double its present production levels to eight million barrels a day, a capacity it had in the early 1970s when oil prices hovered around dollars 11 per barrel. In real purchasing power, today’s oil price is cheaper than it was then.

Siberia

The discovery of new fields in Eastern Siberia could provide between two and three billion tons of oil. In the past two to three years the Natural Resources Ministry has offered a significant number of fields in tenders in Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Irkutsk region.

China

In the next decade, PetroChina plans to increase its proven oil reserves to 100 million metric tons a year at its Daqing oilfield to meet rising energy demand.

Iraq

Important new fields are being prospected all the time, most notably and recently in the Anbar province, where al-Qaeda forces have been making their strongest challenge. Iraq has the third largest oil reserves of any nation, and that’s if you take the lowest estimate of its reserves. Its oil is of purer quality, and nearer to the surface, than that of many of its rivals. Basra could be as rich as Kuwait in five years.

Brazil

A huge offshore oil discovery could help Brazil join the ranks of the world’s major exporters, but full-scale extraction is unlikely until 2013 and will be very expensive. The “ultra-deep” Tupi field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro could hold eight billion barrels of recoverable light crude, and initial production should exceed 100,000 barrels daily.

Brazilian state oil company Petrobras will start pilot pumping in 2010 or 2011, but full production will take several more years. Getting the oil out will be an expensive and formidable challenge because the oil is so deep under the earth’s surface. The lag time before production means that any impact on world oil prices won’t come soon.

Delusions of a Harvard Professor

A lot of people presume that technology is going to provide a nice, cost-effective solution to our energy problems. Who could blame them, when you have people like Ricardo Hausmann, the director of Harvard University’s Center for International Development telling them that it’s all true? Professor Hausmann expressed this view in an Op-Ed piece in Financial Times:

Biofuels can match oil production

Hausmann, like so many others, doesn’t have a clear understanding of just how much oil we actually consume. As I have pointed out before, the entire U.S. output of ethanol is only equivalent to a single mid-sized oil refinery. The scale difference is immense. And Hausmann’s article represents the kind of delusional thinking that runs rampant among those who don’t have a solid grip on our energy usage:

Peering into the future seldom produces a clear picture. But this is not the case with bioenergy. Its long-term impacts on the global economy appear to be pretty clear, making many long-term predictions quite compelling, including the demise of the price-setting power of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the end of agricultural protectionism.

No, we usually can’t see the future, but this time it’s different. Lots of people disagree with what he sees, including the EIA who forecasts biofuels to supply less than 2% of our liquid fuel needs by 2030. But the Harvard Professor peers into the future, and the view is clear.

First, technology is bound to deliver a biofuel that will be competitive with fossil energy at something like current prices.

How about a couple of corollaries?

Technology is bound to deliver interstellar flight that will be competitive with international air travel at something like current prices.

Technology is bound to deliver a cure for cancer that will be competitive with a tooth extraction at something like current prices.

How do I know these things? Because it’s technology. And I know that looking into the future seldom produces a clear picture. But this is not the case with space flight or cancer cures.

Brazil has been exporting ethanol to the US at an average delivery price of $1.45 for an amount with the energy equivalence of a gallon of petrol. It is doing so profitably and in increasing amounts, in spite of a 54 cents a gallon tariff to protect American maize-based ethanol producers. Many countries are following suit.

Well then there’s our solution. All we have to do is use technology to move the U.S. and Europe to the tropics, where high year-round levels of solar-insolation are key to producing cheap ethanol. Then, it should be a simple matter to get the average American consumer to cut their oil usage from 27 barrels a year to the 4.2 barrels that the Brazilians use. Problem solved. The future has never been clearer.

I can’t read any more of it. I have exhausted today’s quota of sarcasm just addressing his first 2 paragraphs.

Brazil’s New Oil Discovery

You may have seen in the news that Brazil has made a new oil discovery. It is always hard to judge how much is hyperbole, but they are excited about it:

Offshore oil discovery could make Brazil major petroleum exporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil: A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil’s petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 percent and boost this country into the ranks of the world’s major exporters, officials said.

The government-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said the new “ultra-deep” Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude, sending Petrobras shares soaring and prompting predictions that Brazil could join the world’s “top 10″ oil producers.

“Brazil’s reserves will lie somewhere between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela,” Gabrielli said at a news conference.

Petrobras says the Tupi field, off Brazil’s southeastern Atlantic coast, has between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels — equivalent to 40 percent of all the oil ever discovered in Brazil.

Brazil is a country very well-positioned for worldwide energy shortages. They don’t use much oil, they have lots of oil, and they are efficient producers of ethanol.

Brazil’s New Oil Discovery

You may have seen in the news that Brazil has made a new oil discovery. It is always hard to judge how much is hyperbole, but they are excited about it:

Offshore oil discovery could make Brazil major petroleum exporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil: A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil’s petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 percent and boost this country into the ranks of the world’s major exporters, officials said.

The government-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said the new “ultra-deep” Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude, sending Petrobras shares soaring and prompting predictions that Brazil could join the world’s “top 10″ oil producers.

“Brazil’s reserves will lie somewhere between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela,” Gabrielli said at a news conference.

Petrobras says the Tupi field, off Brazil’s southeastern Atlantic coast, has between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels — equivalent to 40 percent of all the oil ever discovered in Brazil.

Brazil is a country very well-positioned for worldwide energy shortages. They don’t use much oil, they have lots of oil, and they are efficient producers of ethanol.

Brazil’s New Oil Discovery

You may have seen in the news that Brazil has made a new oil discovery. It is always hard to judge how much is hyperbole, but they are excited about it:

Offshore oil discovery could make Brazil major petroleum exporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil: A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil’s petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 percent and boost this country into the ranks of the world’s major exporters, officials said.

The government-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said the new “ultra-deep” Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude, sending Petrobras shares soaring and prompting predictions that Brazil could join the world’s “top 10″ oil producers.

“Brazil’s reserves will lie somewhere between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela,” Gabrielli said at a news conference.

Petrobras says the Tupi field, off Brazil’s southeastern Atlantic coast, has between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels — equivalent to 40 percent of all the oil ever discovered in Brazil.

Brazil is a country very well-positioned for worldwide energy shortages. They don’t use much oil, they have lots of oil, and they are efficient producers of ethanol.

Brazil’s New Oil Discovery

You may have seen in the news that Brazil has made a new oil discovery. It is always hard to judge how much is hyperbole, but they are excited about it:

Offshore oil discovery could make Brazil major petroleum exporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil: A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil’s petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 percent and boost this country into the ranks of the world’s major exporters, officials said.

The government-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said the new “ultra-deep” Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude, sending Petrobras shares soaring and prompting predictions that Brazil could join the world’s “top 10″ oil producers.

“Brazil’s reserves will lie somewhere between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela,” Gabrielli said at a news conference.

Petrobras says the Tupi field, off Brazil’s southeastern Atlantic coast, has between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels — equivalent to 40 percent of all the oil ever discovered in Brazil.

Brazil is a country very well-positioned for worldwide energy shortages. They don’t use much oil, they have lots of oil, and they are efficient producers of ethanol.

Brazil’s New Oil Discovery

You may have seen in the news that Brazil has made a new oil discovery. It is always hard to judge how much is hyperbole, but they are excited about it:

Offshore oil discovery could make Brazil major petroleum exporter

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil: A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil’s petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 percent and boost this country into the ranks of the world’s major exporters, officials said.

The government-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, said the new “ultra-deep” Tupi field could hold as much as 8 billion barrels of recoverable light crude, sending Petrobras shares soaring and prompting predictions that Brazil could join the world’s “top 10″ oil producers.

“Brazil’s reserves will lie somewhere between those of Nigeria and those of Venezuela,” Gabrielli said at a news conference.

Petrobras says the Tupi field, off Brazil’s southeastern Atlantic coast, has between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels — equivalent to 40 percent of all the oil ever discovered in Brazil.

Brazil is a country very well-positioned for worldwide energy shortages. They don’t use much oil, they have lots of oil, and they are efficient producers of ethanol.

Letter to CNN on Inaccuracies

Dear CNN,

Over the weekend, I watched your special report We Were Warned: Out of Gas. I had previously seen the original version, “Out of Oil”, and wrote to CNN at that time pointing out a number of inaccuracies in the report. (It appears that the transcript still reflects the earlier version). Those inaccuracies remain in the newer version, so again I feel compelled to point them out. While I think the overall message of the report is essential, you give critics ammunition by not having all of your facts in order. So let’s look at some points.

First, we have Frank Sesno stating “Ethanol now accounts for nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s transportation fuel.” This is inaccurate. Diesel accounts for over 50% of transportation fuel. Gasoline provides 26%. Ethanol, by volume, comes in at 17%. But because ethanol has lower energy content, the actual energy contribution is around 10%.

Second, we have Sesno stating “Ethanol helped Brazil beat its oil addiction, and with sales and exports growing, its profitable, no more government money.” Considering that Brazil gets 90% of their energy from fossil fuels - including a large proportion from oil - I would hardly call that beating their oil addition. What they have done, as a result of aggressive domestic oil policies, is to use their own oil instead of depending on imported oil. This is possible because Brazil has an oil supply/demand picture far more favorable than does the United States. However, I would point out that the car that Sesno was driving around in has numerous parts that were derived from imported oil. So, Brazil still has an oil addition, just like the rest of the world.

Third, we have Sesno asking “So I’m thinking, why can’t I do this in America?” I can easily answer that question for him. The reason is that Brazil domestically produces over 3 barrels of oil per capita each year. This is almost enough to meet the demand, which is around 4 barrels per person. Other sources, including ethanol, are able to close that gap. The U.S., on the other hand, produces 11 barrels per person, but we use 27 barrels per person. The only way we can close that large gap is with imports. No way could we do it with ethanol, unless we drastically reduce that gap by reducing demand. We also need to consider the fact that Brazil makes ethanol out of sugarcane - far more efficient than doing so from corn - and that the population is quite a bit smaller than that of the U.S. The fact is that the U.S. couldn’t replicate what Brazil has done even by turning the entire corn crop into ethanol. The lesson we can take from Brazil is that we need to use a lot less oil in the U.S.

On the question of why distribution for E85 is limited, there seems to be this widespread misconception that this is preventing further penetration of ethanol into the market. In fact, the amount of ethanol we currently produce could not even provide a nationwide E10 blend. If we had E85 pumps at stations from coast to coast, most of them would simply have no product to sell.

Finally, on the topic of hydrogen, Sesno states “Pollution-free technology, but years, probably decades before these cars are king of the road.” This technology is far from pollution-free. Over 95% of all hydrogen is produced from natural gas. So while a hydrogen car may emit no pollution, there was a lot of pollution generated in the production of the hydrogen. The hope is that some day hydrogen will be economically produced via renewable sources, but the possibility is distant at best.

In conclusion, the report delivers a needed message. But the inaccuracies distract from the message. I hope that CNN will see fit to correct these errors in the future.

Sincerely,

Robert Rapier
Chemical Engineer
Aberdeen, Scotland

Report: Brazilian Ethanol is Sustainable

For those who are expecting a Brazilian debunking, I am going to have to disappoint you. My previous debunking was not addressed at the issue of whether Brazilian ethanol is sustainable, but rather whether their example can be exported to the U.S. Whenever the topic of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol has come up, my response is generally that from what I have read, it appears to be a pretty good deal. Furthermore, I have never seen evidence to dispute the high EROEI claims of sugarcane ethanol. However, I will usually note that there are few comprehensive reports that have examined the process in detail, and I would feel more comfortable about the positive assessments if someone did such a study.

My wish has been granted. IEA Bioenergy has recently publicized a report entitled “Sustainability of Brazilian bio-ethanol”. The report was commissioned by The Netherlands Agency for Sustainable Development and Innovation, and is in my opinion the most important endorsement of Brazilian ethanol to date. The work was conducted by the Copernicus Institute at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and at the University of Campinas in Brazil. The 136-page report is publicly available here (1.2 meg PDF).

The purpose of the study is explained in the introduction to the report:

The Dutch society recognizes the need for sustainable production and use of biomass. This has been expressed by environmental groups and the Parliament. The Dutch government decided to seek solutions by developing sustainability criteria and certification of biomass by a commission sustainable production of biomass. Between January 2006 and July 2006 these criteria have been developed. Parallel to these developments, in February 2006 this project was commissioned by SenterNovem on behalf of the Dutch Ministry for Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment. As Brazil is one of the most likely countries to export bio-ethanol from sugar cane to the Netherlands, the sustainability of Brazilian bio-ethanol is the main topic of this report.

The main objective of this report was a comparison of Dutch sustainability criteria and the current Brazilian practice, and quantification of the consequences for ethanol production in terms of production method and production costs if these sustainability criteria are applied. To this end, the Dutch sustainability demands for bio-ethanol were investigated, including stakeholder consultation in the Netherlands, and an extensive assessment of the current ecological, economic and social impacts of ethanol production based on sugar cane in Brazil was carried out.

This is precisely the kind of study that has been needed to verify that claims of Brazilian ethanol sustainability are on sound scientific footing. According to the report, there are some areas of concern, but none that should prevent Brazilian ethanol from meeting the sustainability criteria:

While the current study contains many different types of uncertainties, no prohibitive reasons where identified why ethanol from São Paulo principally could not meet the Dutch sustainability standards set for 2007. In many impact categories, Brazilian ethanol from sugar cane scores average to (very) positive, see also Table I for a summary. For a number of other criteria, problems are identified, but it also appears that these may differ strongly between the individual plants. Furthermore, for most of these issues, measures can be identified to improve performance (when needed).

For the future and the whole of Brazil, too many uncertainties remain to determine whether also additional criteria from 2011 onwards can be met. First of all, it is as yet unclear how additional land use for sugar cane may cause indirect / induced land-use, and how large the actual impacts will be on land use, biodiversity etc. Second, it is also uncertain whether and how the Dutch sustainability criteria will deal with these indirect impacts, as these criteria are not yet clearly defined.

It is important to recognize that sustainability criteria lead to higher production costs - depending on the strictness of the sustainability criteria, we estimate additional ethanol costs of up to 56%, though in case mechanical green harvesting is applied, additional ethanol costs are estimated at 24%.While the latter may not necessarily be prohibitive given current oil prices, it is clear that some financial support is most likely needed to stimulate sustainable ethanol production.

The report examined a number of sustainability criteria. However, in this essay I will mention only two: EROEI and soil erosion.

What’s the EROEI?

One the issue of sugarcane ethanol EROEI, which has been debated here a great deal, the study mentioned two different literature reports. The first was by Oliveira et al. in 2005, and it concluded that the EROEI was between 3.1 and 3.9. The second report was by Macedo et al. in 2004 and it concluded that the EROEI was between 8.3 and 10.2. (Note that the “bad” EROEI was still over double the EROEI of corn ethanol.) Due to the huge disparity between the two papers, the authors took a look at the underlying numbers, and concluded that the discrepancy involved the amount of diesel used in the agricultural operations process. They ultimately tracked down another paper that agreed with the Macedo study, so they reasoned that the diesel consumption numbers used by Oliviera were erroneous. They therefore concluded that an EROEI between 8.3 and 10.2 was legitimate.

Not surprisingly, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction for sugarcane ethanol was estimated to be >80%. EROEI and GHG emissions are very closely related, such that a renewable energy source possessing a high EROEI should demonstrate a high level of GHG emission reduction.

Soil Erosion

One area that did not fare as well as sugarcane ethanol advocates have often advertised is on the issue of soil erosion. I have been told a number of times that there is no erosion from sugarcane production, or that production is managed such that the topsoil actually increases over time.

While the report noted that the erosion is lower than for crops such as corn, it did note:

Soil erosion in sugar cane is generally limited compared to conventional agricultural crops such as corn and soybeans, although the exact difference is dependant on local conditions. However, soil losses for sugar cane may vary dramatically from 0.1 t/ha/y to 109 t/ha/y, depending on many factors, such as the declivity, the annual rain fall, the management and harvesting system, etc.

The report did state that data on erosion from sugarcane production was limited, and that there were some studies that suggested little to no erosion. The report also indicated that the erosion issue should be studied more closely, and that a soil erosion management plan is required. They state that new compliance criteria are to be developed for 2011. In concluding the section on soil erosion, they state:

Soil erosion during sugar cane production can be a site-specific problem. Soil erosion rates under sugar cane production are limited compared to conventional cropland, but are likely higher compared to pastures. Data on soil erosion rates under various land use types are however uncertain. Soil erosion can be prevented in various ways, although it cannot be avoided completely. Consequently, only in case very strict soil erosion rates are applied (which goes beyond the approach applied in existing certification systems and guidelines) soil erosion could be an important bottleneck for certification. As far as soil erosion can be prevented, the costs are likely in the order of magnitude of a few percent of the production costs of ethanol. We conclude that soil erosion can be regarded in general as having a medium impact factor on soil erosion.

My guess is that the last sentence in that section was supposed to read “We conclude that soil erosion can be regarded in general as having a medium impact factor on the sustainability criteria.”

Implications for Tropical Countries

Based on the findings in the report, it suggests that many tropical countries have the potential for sustainable fuel production. This should be particularly true of any country that can grow excess sugarcane according to Brazil’s methods. The major caveat is that the soil erosion issue must be appropriately managed. Not only would this help certain countries achieve some level of energy security, but excess fuel produced for export would open up new opportunities for farmers, factory workers, etc. and generate income for the country.

Implications for the U.S.

The reason the Netherlands commissioned this study is that they want to transition to fuels that are produced in a sustainable manner. If Brazil or other tropical countries can produce enough fuel for export, it will benefit the U.S. just like it will benefit the Netherlands. However, the U.S. does have an import tariff in place that penalizes Brazilian ethanol in order to protect (unsustainable) homegrown corn ethanol.

One way the Brazilian example does not benefit the U.S. is in providing a template for success. As I have argued previously, Brazil’s particular situation is not applicable in the U.S. As I wrote in an article for World Energy Source, the U.S. uses 7 times the energy per capita that Brazil does. Our supply/demand imbalance gap is 16.9 barrels per person per year. Theirs was 0.2 barrels per person last year, prior to the opening of a new Petrobras platform earlier in the year (immediately after which they declared energy independence). Furthermore, we rely on a crop (corn) in the U.S. that is much less energy efficient, and has ten times the soil erosion of sugarcane production. Finally, we are not in a tropical climate, and therefore have a much shorter growing season than does Brazil.

Brazilian ethanol expert Milton Maciel, has echoed these arguments:

Sugar cane ethanol from Brazil is NOT a realistic target or a comparable model for USA ethanol from corn. It is very easy to replace all gasoline when you would only need 8 billion gallons per year and you have a generous plant that thrives rain-fed under tropical conditions, occupying less than 1% of a country’s arable land, to produce alcohol to replace 50% of all that gasoline. However, this cannot be extrapolated for USA’s conditions, neither for corn, not even for sugar cane in Southern states. So, realistically, let’s understand that sugar cane ethanol in Brazil is mangoes and corn ethanol in USA is apples.

Pipedreams

The Brazilian example does suggest some avenues ripe for exploration in the U.S. There are certain crops that are far less erosive than others. According to Table K.1 in the report, soil erosion for sugarcane and corn was 1.24 and 12.0 (t/ha/y) respectively. Note that erosion from corn is 10 times the erosion from sugarcane. Another listed crop, potatoes, had about half the erosion level of corn. However, the level of erosion for potatoes is still not sustainable, so we need to look to other crops if we are to maintain the integrity of our topsoil.

Imagine a couple of scenarios. First, imagine a variety of sugarcane that is bred/engineered to withstand more temperate climates. Imagine the Midwest covered in sugarcane instead of corn, and we would have taken a big step toward sustainability. Alternatively, imagine a plant that currently thrives in the Midwest, does not contribute to soil erosion, and produces sugar (easily converted to ethanol). I could envision something like Miscanthus, with an engineered gene(s) that allows it to produce sugar. If you have ever seen the ancestor of corn – teosinte - and compared it to modern corn, this idea does not seem out of the question. Again, if we could pull something like that off in the U.S., it could offset some of the decline in conventional oil production without exacting the high environmental price of alternatives like coal-to-liquids.

Selective Breeding Turned Teosinte into Modern Corn

Conclusions

The sustainability of Brazilian ethanol appears for the most part to be as advertised. The indications are that the EROEI is at least 8.3, which would actually make it better than for gasoline. (Incidentally, that brings to mind the question of why Brazil would want to export any ethanol; I would use my ethanol internally and would export my oil instead). The sustainability criteria that were used in this study are an example of what we should be doing for all of our fuel sources, and we should encourage those that meet these standards.